Good morning, tradersā¦
Ben here.
Unsurprisingly, this week has been dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
On Monday, I sent a text alert to my Spyder Members, warning about the dangers of trading too aggressively before the FOMC:
This comes back to the idea of trading like a farmer. I know what Iām looking for in an options trading setup ā and if I donāt see it, that setup becomes a no-trade.
But now that the meeting has concluded and the Fed has decided to hold interest rates steady, weāre seeing an initial bullish reaction, and starting to get a trendā¦
The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) surged more than 3% following the Fedās announcement on Wednesday, while sector-leader Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) gained a staggering 12.85%.
That said, the price action can be very unpredictable in the days after Fed decisions. I canāt tell you how many times Iāve seen the market surge (or dump) after Powell speaks, only for stocks to make a counterintuitive reversal the following day, destroying everyoneās unrealized gains.
To help make sure this doesnāt happen, let me give you three key tips for trading the post-FOMC madnessā¦
Size Down Your Positions
More than anything, I recommend sizing down and trading smaller positions this week.
This market can flip at any moment, and we donāt want to be left holding a large bag at the wrong time.
Smaller positions give you more wiggle room to make mistakes (especially if youāre trading a small account).
The most important thing is that you go on to trade another day. Never risk more than youāre willing to lose.
I canāt tell you how many traders Iāve seen blow their entire careers on a few poorly-sized trades.
And itās always sizing too big that kills traders, not the other way around.
If youāre unhappy after a winning trade because you didnāt bet more money, thatās greed rearing its ugly head.
You should be excited about your strategy working, and not disappointed that you didnāt make more money.
Be very deliberate with your position sizing and youāll be a better trader for it.
Then, you should also be very deliberate with something elseā¦
Book Profits Quickly
Suppose youāre lucky and disciplined enough to find yourself in a five-star setup, where your contracts are surging.
In that case, itās time to immediately identify another price target ā the level where youāll book profits.
If a tradeās going well, greed is your worst enemy. Youāve gotta fight the urge to hold out for unrealistic price targets.
To use a baseball analogy: Be satisfied hitting a single ā¦ donāt risk missing the ball by going for a grand slam.
This is especially true during a week like this one when major Fed catalysts can rock the market in minutes.
I want you to be āgreedy with your gainsā this week. If youāre up 50% on an options trade, donāt hold out for 75-100%.
Lock your profits up and move on to the next play. Scale out of your trades gradually to secure your gains.
This is easier said than done. Thereās a constant war in tradersā heads between holding runners and booking profits quickly.
But this week, with the Fed dominating the narrative, itās more important than ever to grab your unrealized gains while you still have them.
Stick to Your Plan
This isnāt the first time Iāll mention the importance of forming a plan for every trade you enter.
Itās not rocket science ā every successful trader I know has their game plan prepared before they enter a trade.
However, simply writing a trading plan isnāt enough ā you must stick to it.
Letās say youāre going on a road trip and the GPS has planned a route for you. If you take some side road that wasnāt in your itinerary, youāll probably take more time than anticipated. Or worse, you could get lost.
Well, the same goes for trading.
To build your plan, determine the following before entering any trades:
- Key price levels (support and resistance)…
- Any upcoming catalysts that could affect the share priceā¦
- Position size (the number of contracts I want to trade)ā¦
- Profit target and risk levelā¦
- Potential entry and exit pricesā¦
Then, once youāre in the trade, you need to stick to your plan as much as possible. This isnāt to say you shouldnāt be willing to adapt to extremely volatile conditions ā you should.
If youāre on your road trip and find one of the freeways you planned to travel is closed for construction, youāll need to adjust your navigation. Again, trading works similarly.
But barring the unexpected, thereās a reason you laid out the roadmap you did. So donāt veer away from your meticulously-designed trading plan unless the price action forces you to.
Now, before we go, letās look at:
š°The Biggest Smart-Money Bets of the Dayš°
- $3.1 million bearish bet on PDD 08/23/2024 $129 puts @ $5.00 avg. (seen on 7/31)
- $2.6 million bullish bet on PYPL 09/20/2024 $60 calls @ $7.65 avg. (seen on 7/31)
- $1.8 million bullish bet on GLD 10/18/2024 $230 calls @ $5.00 avg. (seen on 7/31)
Happy trading,
Ben Sturgill
P.S. My brand-new specialized system for trading earnings season ā Operation: Master Calendar ā is off to a rip-roaring start.
Take a look at the results from my first 4 trade ideas:
EQR 8/16/24 $70 calls @ ~ 2.30
17% move from ~$2.30 on 7/29 to $2.70 on 7/29*
FFIV 8/16/24 $185 calls @ ~3.60
456% move from ~$3.60 on 7/29 to $20 on 7/31*
HOLX 8/16/24 $85 calls @ ~0.75
69% move from ~$0.75 on 7/29 to $1.27 on 7/29*
WELL 8/16/24 $115 calls @ ~1.00
100% move from ~$1.00 on 7/29 to $6 on 7/30*
If you want access to this system ā which can predict earnings moves like these before they happen ā Click here now to join Operation: Master Calendar!
*Past performance does not indicate future results