Good morning, tradersβ¦
Jeff here.
Thereβs an itch that traders feel β this need to always be in the game, always making a move.
But as weird as this might sound, some of the best trades youβll ever make are the ones you donβt take.
Thatβs exactly where I stand right now.
Markets are ultra-volatile, and last weekβs big tech earnings were a perfect example of why patience pays off.
Many traders rushed in, buying call options ahead of earnings, thinking they were about to hit the jackpot. After all, these companies were expected to beat expectations β and they did!
But look at what happened next: the stocks tanked. AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT β all red.
In hindsight, itβs obvious. The outcome of these events wasnβt just about whether they βbeatβ the top and bottom lines. It was about guidance, CapEx, and market sentiment.
Traders who placed their bets before earnings were essentially gambling. They didnβt wait for the full story. And a lot of them got destroyed.
Thatβs why I prefer to wait until after a major event plays out before making my move.
Some traders donβt have the patience for this. They want action. They want to feel like theyβre doing something.
But every day isnβt a great trading day. And the traders who donβt respect that end up taking losses they couldβve easily avoided.
With that in mind, let me show you why now is a time for caution, conservatism, and patienceβ¦
Avoid βSports Bettingβ on the Stock Market
Traders love to be right. Itβs a natural instinct β this internal need to make a bold call and have it pay off big.
But the best traders in the world donβt care about being right all the time.
They prioritize making money over being right. It doesnβt matter if you βnailed the callβ on an event β if you didnβt make money, it was a waste of time.
On the flip side, if you placed a predictive trade and were wrong β now youβre stuck with a loss simply because you wanted to make a brilliant prediction.
This is why I donβt make binary bets before major catalysts like earnings reports, Fed meetings, investor conferences, or product launches.
The outcome is unknown. And when the outcome is unknown, the trade is a gamble.
So, what do I do instead? I wait.
Once the catalyst happens and the initial reaction plays out, thatβs when I look for my trade.
This is why:
- The major move has already happened. Now I can see whatβs real and whatβs just noise.
- Knee-jerk reactions often reverse. I wait for confirmation before making a move.
- Implied volatility (IV) drops after the event, making options cheaper.
Instead of betting before the catalyst and hoping for the best, I wait after and trade with the trend. Thatβs a strategy that actually works.
3 Mistakes That Lead to Bad Predictive Trades
If making predictive trades is so risky, why do so many traders still do it?
It usually boils down to one of these three mistakesβ¦
1. Constantly Chasing Action
Some traders think they have to trade every day. Maybe they get bored. Maybe they feel like theyβre missing out. Maybe theyβre just impatient.
Whatever the reason, it leads to bad trades.
The best traders donβt make trades just to trade. They wait for the right setups. They pick their spots carefully.
If you feel the urge to trade for the sake of trading β stop. Thatβs not trading. Thatβs chasing.
2. Greedy Positioning
Hereβs a fact: if you buy options before a major catalyst and youβre right about the direction, youβll make more money than if you wait until after the move happens.
Thatβs true. But that doesnβt mean itβs a good strategy.
The problem? The odds arenβt in your favor. The market could move the opposite way. Or the expected move could already be priced in, leading to a muted reaction. Or implied volatility could crush your contracts even if youβre βright.β
Being right doesnβt mean youβll profit. And thatβs why greed leads to bad trades.
3. Copying Other Tradersβ Plays
During major catalysts, social media explodes with traders sharing their bets. Everyone has an opinion, and theyβre all trying to convince others that their trade is the best one.
But blindly copying trades is a terrible idea.
You donβt know their full strategy. You donβt know their risk tolerance. And if too many people pile into the same trade, it becomes overcrowdedβsetting up the perfect conditions for a rug pull.
Trust your own research. If you donβt understand a trade inside and out, donβt take it.
Some traders made a killing on last weekβs big tech earnings. But a lot of traders got crushed because they didnβt wait for the full picture before making their move.
This is the difference between smart trading and gambling.
If you donβt know how the market will react to an event, why are you betting on it?
Let the market show its hand first. Then trade the reaction.
Trade smart,
Jeff Zananiri
P.S. One strategy is still working, even in this crazy marketβ¦
If youβre ready to capitalize on the gains GAMMA has been delivering me every week β 145%, 235%, 630%, and even 900% β all in 24 hours or less* β then now is the timeβ¦
TODAY, February 10 at 9:00 a.m. EST, the great Danny Phee is hosting a SPECIAL LIVE WORKSHOP to walk you through everything you need to know about my GAMMA Code system.
Let AI help you find triple-digit trades β Donβt miss your chance to join.
*Past performance does not indicate future results