Good morning, traders…

Jeff here. 

There’s a major risk in the market right now that no one is talking about.

You might think I’m hinting at trade wars, Fed policy, or the recent tech sell-off…

But those aren’t the biggest threats. The real danger is rampant speculation. 

And in the past few years, speculation has gone off the charts. 

That said, this isn’t some novel phenomenon. I’ve seen this all before…

Back in the late ‘90s, fresh out of college, I was working under Ace Greenberg, a Wall Street legend who ran Bear Stearns. 

It was the height of the dot-com boom. Every cab driver, bartender, and college kid was suddenly an “investor.” 

They weren’t looking at balance sheets, earnings, or real fundamentals. They were buying anything with “.com” in the name, using as much margin as their brokers would allow.

Then it all collapsed, and those “traders” got destroyed. 

And now, I’m seeing the same thing all over again. But this time, it’s even worse.

I want to make sure you’re prepared, hedged, and ready to act no matter what the market throws at you. 

So, if you’re not fully aware of the risks this wave of speculation is creating, now’s the time to wake up and pay attention…

The Speculation Problem

Options trading used to be a sort of exotic, niche corner of the risk asset markets…

But options trading volume has exploded in the last few years. And I don’t mean steady, healthy growth — I mean a full-blown mania.

In 2019, traders bought about 8.1 billion options contracts. By 2023, that number had skyrocketed to over 11.5 billion — a nearly 50% increase in just four years.

Even worse, more than 40% of all options trades are now zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) contracts. 

These are essentially lottery tickets — high-risk, short-term bets that can go to zero in hours.

There’s a reason they’re called “YOLOs.” Buying these contracts is not trading … it’s degenerate gambling.

And it’s not just retail traders piling in. Institutions have also embraced leverage at an unprecedented level, amplifying risk across the entire market.

The Leverage Problem

Speculation gets even more out of control when people start using borrowed money to chase quick gains.

Look at margin debt. It’s sitting at $720 billion — near record highs. That’s money traders don’t have, but they’re using it anyway to chase the next big move.

When leverage is this extreme, the market turns into a powder keg. 

It only takes one spark — a big sell-off, a credit crunch, or even a slight shift in sentiment — to set off a massively bearish chain reaction.

I saw it happen in 2008. I saw it happen in 2010. I saw it happen in 2020. 

And now, I’m seeing all the same warning signs again…

When the market is full of speculators using leverage, corrections aren’t smooth. They’re violent. 

Stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down.

Think about March 2020. Stocks didn’t just drift lower — they collapsed, with the S&P 500 dropping 34% in a month. 

Margin calls wiped out overleveraged traders, hedge funds blew up, and the Fed had to step in with trillions in stimulus.

This time, there’s no stimulus coming. The Fed is still fighting inflation. 

If we get another major market shock, there’s no safety net…

How to Protect Yourself

Options are a powerful tool when used correctly. But too many traders today are using them recklessly, chasing short-term action with no real plan.

Here’s how you avoid being one of the casualties when this house of cards comes crashing down:

• Avoid Excessive Leverage – If you’re trading on margin or overloading on short-term options, you’re playing with fire. Reduce exposure before the market forces you to.
• Hold Cash and Stay Flexible – When markets are this speculative, it pays to have cash ready. The best trades come after a crash, not right before one.
• Know the Risks Before You Act – Every trade should have a plan. If you don’t know your max risk, you shouldn’t be in the trade. And if you can’t see the risks, you shouldn’t be trading at all. 
• Stay Hedged – If there’s a major correction or crash, the only people who will come out of it unscathed are those holding hedges (SPY and QQQ puts, or VIX calls).

I’ve been in this game for over 27 years. I’ve successfully traded through the dot-com bubble, the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the 2010 flash crash, and the COVID meltdown. 

I know how this story ends.

When speculation takes over, the market eventually corrects. 

And when that happens, the ones left standing are the traders who respect risk — not the ones chasing the hottest trade of the day.

Trade conservatively. Stay disciplined. And don’t get caught up in the madness,

Jeff Zananiri

P.S. One strategy is still working, even in this crazy market…

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*Past performance does not indicate future results