Happy Tuesday, traders…
Jeff here.
It’s time to buckle up.
This week is shaping up to be a big one for the markets, especially as we wrap up the last week of summer before Labor Day.
Usually, this time of year is boring for trading, but 2024 has been anything but typical. This summer has been packed with volatility, making the usual “summer doldrums” seem like a distant memory.
Don’t be surprised if we see even more fireworks this week. Be prepared for anything the market throws at you.
Just to give some perspective on how wild things have been: we’ve seen nearly a year’s worth of moves in the S&P 500 between the end of July and the end of August — in just 30 trading days.
The NASDAQ took a 15% dive, then quickly bounced back by 12%, removing and re-adding trillions of dollars to the stock market.
These aren’t your typical August fluctuations — they are serious moves, and they’re happening fast.
So, we can’t be on autopilot — this is a time for careful and considered trading.
With that in mind, let’s get to my Tuesday Market Outlook for this week…
Nvidia Earnings Preview
First, let’s talk about the big headline event this week: NVIDIA Corporation’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) earnings.
Nvidia earnings are crucial because this company is the poster child for the entire AI rally — the one that’s sent tech stocks to levels never seen before.
In other words, when Nvidia reports, it’s like a growth check for the entire AI industry.
This time, analysts expect NVIDIA — a $3.1 trillion company — to make a 9.5% post-earnings move on Wednesday afternoon.
That kind of shift for a company of this size is nothing short of massive. A 9.5% swing in Nvidia shares would represent $310 billion moving in (or out) of the stock.
When a giant like NVIDIA swings this significantly, it has huge ramifications for the broader market, and we’re likely to feel those ripples on Thursday.
Get ready. Keep a close eye on how this plays out because it could set the tone for the weeks ahead.
Macro Catalysts
Beyond NVIDIA, another major focus this week is the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium.
During Jerome Powell’s press conference last Friday, the Fed chair said “the time has come” for rate cuts.
This shouldn’t have been a big shock to anyone, the Fed is making its usual moves to keep the market engaged. But now, the message is clear: rate cuts are coming in September.
Then, the upcoming jobs number is another looming macro catalyst.
On Friday, September 6th, we’ll get the latest employment data, which always has the potential to shake things up.
After all, it was the surprisingly weak July jobs report that triggered the market’s recent bearish tailspin.
But if recent history is any indication, we might be looking at what I’d call a “fake” jobs number — where the data doesn’t always tell the whole story.
Nonetheless, it’s an important piece of the puzzle for the market, and you should be paying close attention.
The September Effect
As we close out August, be aware of the “September Effect” — historically weak stock market returns seen during the first month of fall.
There’s a lot of speculation about what causes the September Effect…
Popular theories include post-vacation indecision, stock sales to pay for back-to-school supplies, and year-end tax-loss selling as likely causes of an overall September market slump.
Regardless of the cause, the effect itself is hard to ignore…
September has negative returns over the last 100 years, with deeper losses than any other month:
The data is clear: September can be tough for stocks, which is something to keep in mind as we move into the fall season.
The Best Trading Strategy for This Market
Looking at this market objectively, it’s tough to make predictions that stretch beyond a week.
The volatility we’ve seen has made long-term forecasting almost impossible — which is why I suggest focusing on Burn Notices.
When you can’t predict what the market will do next month, it makes sense to focus on shorter time frames and take advantage of the market’s ups and downs.
Quick swing trading (1 to 5-day holding periods) allows you to ride these waves without being overly exposed to long-term risks that are hard to gauge in this environment.
And Burn Notices are the most reliable way to execute these shorter swing trades.
This strategy isn’t complicated, you just have to understand how it works…
It all starts with identifying how Wall Street is trading (and weaponizing these moves to your advantage):
- 🔥 Step 1: Wait for the ‘Burn Notice’ to be issued
- 📉 Step 2: Enter as the share price drops (or surges) into the close
- 📈 Step 3: Wait for the stock to bounce (or tank) the next day
- 🎯 Step 4: Sell at my target exit price
It’s these embarrassing cash bleeds from unprofitable institutional trading — combined with large end-of-day withdrawals — that trigger consistently predictable moves.
So, when you’re trading this week, keep your eyes on NVIDIA’s earnings, the Jackson Hole aftermath, and the upcoming jobs report.
It’s time to take advantage of shorter-term moves. Don’t try to make sense of the longer-term trends that remain highly uncertain.
Every week, I’ll share the trades I find inside my flagship research trading service — the Burn Notice Alliance.
Here’s what you’ll get by signing up:
- 🔔 4 new trade alerts every week (over 200 opportunities per year)
- 👨🏫 Stock tickers and complete instructions for your options trade
- ⭐ My proprietary ranking system for position sizing
- 📖 Full trade analysis and follow-up game plan
Start utilizing the perfect strategy for this market environment — CLICK HERE NOW TO JOIN THE BURN NOTICE ALLIANCE!
The September Effect is looming, NVIDIA’s earnings are expected to cause huge moves, and the Jackson Hole Symposium has set the stage for a shift in monetary policy.
Add in the jobs number on September 6th, and you have all the ingredients for a dynamic, volatile, and unpredictable market environment.
This isn’t a boring summer, folks. There are trading opportunities all over the place. Let’s get out there and make some money.
Happy trading,
Jeff Zananiri
P.S. There’s a hidden trading opportunity right now that 99.9% of the market is sleeping on…
Hedge funds are mispricing trades daily, creating “artificially cheap” opportunities.
Spot these glitches and you could see returns of 51%, 107%, and even 630% within 24 hours…*
*Past performance does not indicate future results
