What’s up, traders…
Jeff here.
April is getting off to a pretty weird start, considering the first week of the month was a shortened four-day trading week.
While the market was closed on Friday, the much-anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) number came out.
The PCE reflects changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by American consumers.
This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. And this time, it showed inflation was tame…
The 2.5% month-over-month increase was in line with analyst expectations, which sent major index futures up overnight.
But anyone expecting a Tuesday rally got a rude awakening yesterday morning…
We had red across the board — SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA), the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY), and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) were all down — a very rare sight these days.
The Dow Jones was doing the worst, with many of the big-cap consumer stocks (staples, cyclical, discretionary) getting hit hard.
Honestly, I’m not that surprised by any of this.
The overall market rally is a little bit exhausted and ahead of itself — which is why the tape has been boring.
Last week was dreadful, but this week’s already a little more interesting…
DON’T FORGET: On THURSDAY, April 4 at 8 p.m. EST — Tim Sykes is GOING LIVE to reveal the secret behind the $2 Trillion Shock set to rock the stock market.
But first, we need to cover my Tuesday Market Outlook.
Let’s break it down…
It’s All About Jobs
Friday is a big day to watch because the jobs numbers are coming out.
This jobs report could be huge because everything is now relying on the job market getting softer to justify cutting interest rates.
As long as the job market is hot, the stock market is soaring, and the economy is strong — cutting rates doesn’t make sense.
WARNING: Oddly enough, if we want the market to stay bullish, we want to see a weak job market on Friday.
It’s all about rates and jobs right now.
Depending on the market backdrop, jobs reports can cause huge moves in the major indexes.
Think back to October 2023…
Following the September jobs report, the DIA jumped nearly 1.2%, while the SPY and the QQQ experienced surges of 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively.
Plus, I don’t really care if it’s bullish or bearish in a scenario like this.
When the major indexes are moving 1.5%+ in a single day — in either direction — that’s an enormous trading opportunity for anyone playing options.
All this to say, don’t sleep on the Jobs report, coming this Friday, April 5.
Boring Tape? Don’t Force Trades…
Then, later in the month, we begin another earnings season.
So, I expect to see a lot more action and tradeable setups around the middle of April.
Other than that, pretty boring tape right now — no big moves.
However, don’t allow yourself to get complacent when the market is boring.
Stocks have an uncanny ability to do the most unexpected things at the most (seemingly) uneventful times.
That’s when the ball starts creeping and unprepared traders can get caught flat-footed.
Whatever you do — don’t force trades.
There’s nothing fun or exciting about sitting on the sidelines, but having consistency as a trader requires serious patience and discipline.
When the market is boring, you’ve gotta be like a zen master meditator and sit on your hands.
Then, when the price action picks up again, you should be like a samurai warrior — striking while the iron is hot.
Unfortunately, we’re in a boring period right now, so it’s crucial to be patient.
That said, I’m noticing certain indicators bubbling up that could mean this boring market’s days are numbered.
For example, I’m seeing the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) starting to pop its head near the $14 level again.
Keep your eye on the VIX, the jobs report, and the price action.
Happy trading,
Jeff Zananiri
P.S. Unlike the rest of the market, you don’t need to wait months to discover the secret behind the upcoming $2 Trillion Shock…
This THURSDAY, April 4 at 8 p.m. EST … Tim Sykes is going LIVE to break down everything you need to know about this major catalyst, including:
- Why 80 Wall Street banks are ALL moving their money ahead of this looming $2 trillion D.C. shock now…
- The way this shock could change everything for traders in the next 30 days…
- How Sykes was able to generate $2.2 million in trading profits the last time this D.C. shock hit…
- His unique trade idea for this election-year shock, FREE…
- Why we could see a potential 300% peak move the day AFTER Sykes goes live…
- And much more…
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