Good morning, traders…
Jeff here.
The 2025 stock market is already giving us a lot to think about…
Big moves in key sectors, some massive squeezes, and the kind of momentum traders dream of.
However, don’t forget: How you approach January could make or break your entire year.
It’s easy to get caught up in the hype when the market starts the year strong. Everyone’s fired up, trying to hit it big right out of the gate.
They want fireworks. They want quick, easy money. They want to make their entire year in the first two weeks.
But more often than not, those unfortunate souls end up blowing up their accounts.
I’ve been doing this long enough to know that January is where many traders go wrong.
On the other hand, if you start January with some small, consistent, stackable wins — you’ll set yourself up for success throughout 2025.
With that in mind, let’s get to my first Tuesday Market Outlook of the new year…
Why January Can Be Dangerous
The answer is simple: taking too much risk too soon.
I get it. It’s tempting. The market’s moving, your adrenaline’s pumping, and you’re thinking, “This is it, the trade that could make my year…”
But over-leveraging in January is a recipe for disaster.
When you blow up early, you don’t just lose money — you lose confidence. And that’s much harder to get back than a few hundred bucks.
Now you’re stuck in defense mode for months, trying to claw your way back to even.
It’s a miserable way to trade — and why I take a completely different approach in January…
Start Small and Build Gradually
For me, the goal in January isn’t to hit home runs. It’s to stack consistent wins, one after the other, no matter how small…
Momentum matters.
When you start the year with a string of wins, even modest ones, two things happen:
- You build your P&L. It might not feel like much at first, but those small wins add up.
- You build your confidence. Trading is a mental game, and confidence is fuel for victory. When you’re winning, you feel sharper, more focused, and more convicted.
Ask yourself: Would you rather have a $5,000 profit in January or a $25,000 drawdown?
I’ll take the slow, steady grind every time…
The Market’s Hot — But Don’t Chase
Now, let’s talk about what’s moving…
Semiconductors
They’re getting squeezed again, with some solid bids coming in early this month. No surprise there with tech earnings around the corner. If you’re trading these names, remember this: the last push higher can be the riskiest one to chase. Keep your stops tight and don’t get greedy.
Crypto Stocks
Crypto stocks are another area to watch. Bitcoin (BTC) is back above $100,000, and I’m expecting to see a new high by mid-month. But just because it’s moving doesn’t mean you throw risk management out the window. Treat it like any other trade: plan your entry, set your stops, and take profits when the opportunity’s there.
Small Caps
Finally, small caps — specifically, nuclear stocks have been going bananas. Stocks like VST and CEG are going parabolic, and it’s not just hype. We’re seeing what I call a “regime change” in fundamentals and sectors, likely tied to the incoming presidential administration. The anticipation of new policies is creating fresh momentum and a boatload of trading opportunities.
These kinds of moves are exciting, but they can also be dangerous if you get in too late. As usual, it all comes back to discipline.
The Best Move You Can Make Right Now
Start small. Build wins. Protect your capital. Your #1 job in January is to stay in the game.
If you end the month with a solid foundation — even if it’s just a handful of small wins — you’re setting yourself up for success the rest of the year.
On the flip side, if you blow up early, you’re playing desperate defense before February even begins.
Don’t do that to yourself.
Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. You don’t need to make your year in January. You just need to avoid the mistakes that sink so many traders early on.
That’s where Burn Notice and GAMMA come in — to help you identify the highest-probability trades.
If you play it smart, I think 2025 is going to be an incredible year for options traders.
But it all starts with the decisions you make today…
Happy trading,
Jeff Zananiri
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*Past performance does not indicate future results