Happy December, traders…
Jeff here.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year … for the stock market.
December isn’t just about holiday parties, family gatherings, and year-end bonuses.
It’s also prime time to capitalize on one of the most consistent patterns in market history: the December Effect (a.k.a. The Santa Claus Rally).
Historically, the last five trading days of December and the first two of January tend to be some of the strongest of the year.
The S&P 500 has delivered positive returns during this seven-day window 79.2% of the time.
That’s a statistical edge you can’t afford to ignore.
The average gain is 1.3%, but last year we saw a staggering 4% surge — with the bulk of the move happening in the first nine days of the month.
And with the momentum we’ve seen in the markets post-election, I think the rally could come sooner rather than later.
With that in mind, let me show you how to weaponize the Santa Claus Rally to your advantage…
Why Stocks Tend to Soar in December
There’s no single reason behind the December Effect, but several factors combine to create this seasonal rally…
1. Tax-Loss Harvesting
Throughout the year, many investors hold onto underperforming stocks, waiting until December to sell them for tax benefits. This selling pressure eases as the month progresses, and the same investors often reinvest their proceeds into other stocks.
This shift can cause a late-December rebound, giving stocks a natural lift.
2. Holiday Optimism
The festive spirit doesn’t just bring out the eggnog — it brings out the bulls, too. Optimism around the holidays often leads to increased buying activity as investors feel more confident putting their money to work.
And let’s not forget: some folks gift stocks for Christmas. Grandpa might skip the toy aisle and buy the kids some fractional shares of Apple instead.
3. Institutional Window Dressing
As someone who’s worked at hedge funds and investment firms, let me tell you: year-end portfolio adjustments are real. Institutions like to “dress up” their portfolios before year-end reporting, buying up the best-performing stocks to make their holdings look stronger.
This practice can push the biggest winners — think tech giants like the “Magnificent Seven” — even higher.
Conversely, this same practice can send beaten-down stocks even lower. Avoid dip-buying and bottom-fishing for the rest of the calendar year.
4. Year-End Bonuses
December is bonus season. Employees receive their checks, and some of that cash finds its way into the stock market.
Increased demand = rising prices.
5. Lower Trading Volumes
As many traders take time off for the holidays, volumes drop. Lower volume can amplify price movements, making it easier for stocks to make outsized moves.
6. Front-running “The January Effect”
Traders anticipating the January Effect — a tendency for small-cap stocks to outperform in the new year — often start buying in December, creating an extra push in stock prices.
And considering small caps have tail winds with the Trump Trade already, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA: IWM) is one to watch closely this month.
How to Position in December
The market doesn’t hand out guarantees, but these trends are too consistent to ignore.
Here’s how you can position yourself to take advantage of this seasonal pattern…
Focus on Strength: Keep an eye on stocks that have been leading the market all year. December often rewards strength, and the winners tend to keep winning during this time.
Know the Timing: The real action tends to happen in the final week of December and spills into the first trading days of January. But as I mentioned earlier, last year, we saw the Santa Claus rally happen earlier. Be ready at the beginning of the month.
The December Effect is one of those rare market patterns where preparation meets opportunity.
You now have the knowledge — and time — to plan your moves before the window opens.
Happy trading,
Jeff Zananiri
P.S. There’s one hidden aspect of trading that’s far more important than any chart, pattern, or strategy…
Join Ben Sturgill TONIGHT, December 2 at 8 p.m. EST to find out what it is — Click here now to reserve your seat!
*Past performance does not indicate future results
