Happy Monday, traders…
Ben here.
Last week, the market kept up the same bearish and volatile trend we’ve seen since February 19.
On Friday, it all came to a head when the jobs report came in weaker than expected.
The economy added 151,000 jobs in February — less than the 160,000 economists were looking for — and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% (from 4.0% in January).
The market didn’t like that. Stocks dropped fast, hitting new year-to-date lows within the first two hours of trading.
But then, Jerome Powell stepped in, saying, “The economy is fine.” And just like that, the Nasdaq ripped more than 2.5% intraday.
So, what was that? The beginning of a sustained bounce? Or just another short-lived relief rally before we head lower again?
While impossible to know for sure, a few pieces of evidence make me feel like a bounce is right around the corner…
Both the Nasdaq and SPY have tested their 200-day moving averages, which is a big technical support level.
Additionally, the Nasdaq bounced precisely off of a very reliable 2-year uptrend:
And underneath the hood, liquidity flows suggest there could be a shift to the upside coming.
All this to say, I think we could see some bullish bounces, and there are four stocks I’m watching closely…
4 Names on My Radar This Week
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO)
This stock took off after earnings, running over 15% at one point before pulling back to around 8% higher. The key driver was strong guidance.
This setup looks a lot like some of the other earnings runners we’ve seen lately — Okta Inc. (NASDAQ: OKTA) and Zscaler Inc. (NASDAQ: ZS), in particular.
Both had big moves up, then pulled back before catching another wave higher. AVGO is in a similar spot now, so the question is: Where will it find support and provide a clean entry?
Looking at the chart, it’s pulling back into an area of prior resistance, which could act as new support.
Buyers stepped in hard on Friday, and the chart is set up nicely for continuation this week.
I’m watching the $205–$210 strike range for potential plays.
Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB)
As sector rotation ramps up, traditionally “boring” names are starting to look more exciting in this tape.
Notably, Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) has been incredibly strong.
Germany’s “fiscal U-turn” helped fuel the rally, and DB is hovering around recent highs.
The key level to watch is the $25 area — a break above could open the door to $30.
Given the volume and price action, it’s on the list for a potential breakout play.
Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE: STZ)
Beer sales aren’t going anywhere, and Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE: STZ) (which owns Corona and Modelo) is seeing some solid buying interest.
It had a strong session last Thursday and looks like it could continue higher.
The stock is breaking above key moving averages and has room toward the $190–$195 zone.
The options market is showing bullish positioning, and the risk/reward looks solid if the uptrend continues.
Paramount Global (NASDAQ: PARA)
This one is showing unusual volume across different expiration dates, with heavy positioning in the April 17th $12 calls.
The chart is in a tight weekly squeeze, and if it breaks out, it could run hard.
The tricky part is that these “lingerers” can sit in a range for a long time before making a decisive move.
But when they do, they tend to go fast. Worth watching for a volume surge that could push it out of consolidation.
Look, it’s no secret — the overall market remains shaky.
Friday’s afternoon rally was an encouraging sign, but we’re not out of the woods yet.
The market is still at the mercy of the news (and whatever Trump says that day).
There’s a lot of uncertainty, which is why I’m leaning toward setups showing relative strength, like the defensive names mentioned earlier.
Let’s see what this week holds, it’s a critical one for the major indexes.
Stay sharp,
Ben Sturgill
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