Happy Tuesday, traders.

Jeff here. 

We’re at a crossroads in the market. I’d call this an “in-between week” now that the biggest names of earnings season have already reported.

Currently, two dominant currents — or market narratives — are pulling trader sentiment in opposite directions.

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But enough small talk, let’s get back to the two currents I’m seeing in the market this week…

Nvidia Keeps the AI Trade Alive

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that the biggest story of the past year has been artificial intelligence (AI). 

The optimism around AI’s potential has led to a mania-driven market bubble, the likes of which I haven’t seen since the dot-com era.

This was perfectly captured by Nvidia Corporation’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) earnings report last week. 

The company increased its revenue by a staggering 265% year-over-year, reporting $22.10 billion vs. $20.62 billion expected along with $5.16 adjusted EPS vs. $4.64 expected.

In other words, NVDA smashed expectations.

Meanwhile, the stock gained more than 10% on Thursday as the sheer veracity of the rally became more and more apparent.

However, now the chart is nearing the all-important $800 resistance level. 

WARNING: $800 could be a hard top for NVDA in the short term.

That’s not to say the stock couldn’t trade a bit higher. But it seems like every time the chart tries to exceed $800, the sellers come in…

NVDA 1-year daily chart — courtesy of StocksToTrade.com

Additionally, I’ve been reading that a lot of hedge funds have been lightening their positions in tech stocks. 

That means you need to tread lightly with tech stocks at these levels, particularly charts as overextended as NVDA. 

But as I mentioned, this AI/NVDA narrative is only the first current. There’s another story, one that’s diametrically opposed to the AI boom, that you need to be paying attention to…

Macro Questions in the Mania

All of the AI momentum is bumping up against a different current…

Yesterday, 10-year treasury yields broke out above 4.30% (over their 50-day moving average).

I know why this happened — the market is coming to grips with an important fact…

The Federal Reserve won’t lower interest rates anytime soon (like they said they were going to) because inflation is sticky, as evidenced by the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

And when the prices of goods and services go up, it’s difficult for the Fed to justify lower rates.

Plus, on top of the inflation in consumer products, stock prices are at all-time highs.

Bottom Line: It would make no sense for the Fed to cut rates amid this parabolic stock rally.

So, we’ve got this situation where the excitement over tech companies is running into some worries about high prices and what the Fed might do about interest rates.

This week, we’re also going to hear from a bunch of Federal Reserve officials. They’re probably going to talk about keeping interest rates where they are because of those high prices we mentioned. 

But, it’s not all cautious news. One sector is showing unbelievable signs of strength at the top of the week…

The Breakout Sector You Need to Watch This Week

Cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin (BTC), are starting to break out once again. 

Companies like Coinbase Global Inc. (NYSE: COIN) and Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) — widely traded “crypto stocks” — are showing signs of strength. The charts look really good to me…

COIN 6-month daily chart — courtesy of StocksToTrade.com

MARA 6-month daily chart — courtesy of StocksToTrade.com

So, we’ve got this mix of big excitement over AI and tech stocks coupled with some anxiety surrounding inflation and interest rates. 

Keeping an eye on how all these things — tech stocks, interest rates, and cryptocurrencies — are interacting will be key for anyone trying to figure out the best moves to make in this mania-driven market.

My advice here is to stay balanced. Watch out for the bigger picture, like what’s happening with the economy and interest rates. 

I’ll see you tonight,

Jeff Zananiri

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