Good morning, traders…
Jeff here.
Listen…
There’s no other way to put it, this market is crazy.
One of the toughest tapes I’ve seen in a long time. And I’ve been trading more or less daily for 27 years.
Risk assets are flipping around constantly. Up, then down. Down, then up.
Overnight moves are destroying options premiums. Patterns that should work aren’t setting up.
Meanwhile, follow-through is getting crushed, the worst stocks are acting like the best, and the best are suddenly the worst…
There’s no hot sector that lasts longer than a day.
I’m telling all my students the same thing right now: this market is a 12 out of 10 in difficulty.
And when the market gets this hard, you only have two choices:
That’s it.
Trying to be a hero in this market is a bad idea. At some point, you will get tested. You will be wrong.
And when you’re wrong in this kind of tape, you don’t just lose a little — you get crushed in a violent, sudden move that comes out of nowhere.
I’m not saying this to discourage you — I’m saying it to protect you.
With that in mind, let’s get to my Tuesday Market Outlook for this riddle of a week…
The Emotional Cost of Overconfidence
I’ve seen this happen to traders over and over again.
They get overconfident, think they’ve got the market figured out, and then — BAM.
One headline, one algo-driven move, one false breakout — and they’re down big before they can even react.
It’s brutal.
And it doesn’t just hurt your P&L — it messes with your head.
That’s the part most people don’t talk about.
Taking big losses in a tough market doesn’t just deplete your capital. It shatters your confidence.
And when that happens, you stop thinking clearly. You start revenge trading, trying to “make it back,” and before you know it, you’re in a deep hole that’s nearly impossible to climb out of.
I’ve seen guys take one bad trade and spend months trying to recover from the damage — not just financially, but mentally.
That’s why I keep telling my students: stay small, stay flat often, and don’t overexpose yourself.
A Market Running on Chaos
There’s no way to predict anything in this news-driven environment…
The news cycle is relentless. Headlines are dropping fast and furious. And it’s not like there’s any clear narrative — just a lot of bluffing, political posturing, and high-stakes 4D chess between global superpowers.
And nobody knows the outcome.
Not me. Not the talking heads on CNBC. Not the shadowy figures moving the markets.
And definitely not you.
So stop trying to figure out the unknowable. Accept it. If the market doesn’t know how to price these assets, it’s a fool’s errand to try to do so yourself.
What Separates the Pros from the Joes
The people who survive markets like this — and make money long-term — are the ones who know when to push and when to back off.
And right now is a back-off moment.
I’ve traded through markets like this before, and I can tell you that patience is a virtue most traders don’t have.
They feel like they have to be doing something all the time. They equate activity with progress.
But in trading, this is a fallacy. Making more trades doesn’t equal making more money. Rather, in a market like this, it usually does the opposite. Sometimes, the smartest trade is no trade at all.
It takes discipline to sit on the sidelines when things are choppy. But that’s exactly what separates great traders from the 90% who lose money.
Let the Market Show Its Hand
If you’re struggling to trade right now, don’t beat yourself up. This is a tough market.
I’ve been doing this for nearly three decades, and I can’t make heads or tails of where we’re headed next.
So shrink the game. Be patient. Stay out of the chop.
This market won’t stay like this forever, but for now, trying to force trades is a fast track to getting your face ripped off.
Let the market show its hand. And don’t let your ego get in the way of your survival.
When the time is right, we’ll step in hard. But today is not that day.
Stay safe out there,
Jeff Zananiri
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